Over the past few weeks, we have reflected with our Master's students in Food Consumption and Nutrition Sciences on how food consumption and the sector will evolve after this first outbreak of SARS-CoV-2. However, this is not an analysis of food trends. A trend can be defined as the result of a change in behavior, or a sequence of events that runs in a certain direction and is expected to have durability and a significant impact. There are specific methodologies for studying trends, based on observing consumer attitudes and behaviors, with the aim of identifying and analyzing current and future trends. However, we emphasize that for the analysis presented in this text, no scientific method was used to analyze trends in the food system during the period of social isolation in the context of COVID-19. We only gathered opinions, analyzed what has been published to date, and identified some of the data already available. This text summarizes, in a minimally organized way, some of the main points of view discussed. These reflections will necessarily be dated and outdated as soon as we publish them, but they will serve as a future memory, if only to portray what we think today.
Three macro aspects seem to have some unanimity when observing the situation. The unpredictability of this crisis, affecting food supply and demand on a global scale never seen before . The possibility of already anticipating structural changes in the medium term. Changes in society will not be immediate, and structural changes in the food chain will certainly occur later, as happened, for example, with the food crises of the 1990s ("BSE – Mad Cow Disease", Dioxins in chickens…) which led to the creation of EFSA in the European Union and ASAE in Portugal, or, later, to the implementation of traceability systems for beef . Finally, the fact that changes in consumer behavior regarding food products are adaptive. That is, the response in a lockdown situation will be, for example, a change in the quantity and regularity of consumption. However, the real changes may occur after this isolation, through the need to adapt to a disease that will not disappear overnight .
Inbreeding
The increasing individualization of consumption and the attempt to promote food production in each country, that is, self-sufficiency models, defined as the capacity of each country to satisfy the food consumption needs of its population through its own domestic production and/or the importation of food products financed by corresponding exports. This individualization of consumption also means buying food more and more through e-commerce or home delivery .
Beyond this technological issue, there is another political issue, insofar as the sectors that best protect citizens will reap the rewards. In this respect, the emergence of epidemics may favor more security-oriented regimes or those that have invested or will invest heavily in the public sector (which will be difficult in times of fragile economies) .
Increasing automation
The food chain has realized that part of its fragility lies in the human factor and will increasingly try to automate all its processes. From agricultural production, through industry, distribution and home delivery to the consumer. This industrial rationalization of the food system may also affect the health sector, attempting to find increasingly individualized and personalized models and healthcare services that can even be delivered remotely and at home. The role of humans in these two areas will tend to be reformulated, although attention will increase to the robustness of the system in crisis situations, since this problem has clearly highlighted the crucial importance of these two sectors – food and health – and, in particular, the existence of a robust public health sector in Portugal.
A new look at the chronic diseases/acute infectious diseases dichotomy
While in the past these categories of diseases were seen as opposites, COVID-19 has demonstrated that pathologies such as obesity, diabetes, or hypertension can aggravate the onset and treatment of infectious diseases. In other words, those who have these conditions are at greater risk of a worse prognosis during treatment, implying that chronic and acute infectious diseases will increasingly manifest together. This will require a different approach than usual, in terms of prevention and intervention during times of crisis.
The increase in social inequalities
The progressive automation of the food chain and easier access to food for consumers who are more knowledgeable about and have greater access to technology will increase inequalities in access to food, between generations and between different economic and social levels. The increased risk of infection will also be combated by access to expensive technology (see the case of ventilators) and the reduced capacity for individual protection, which diminishes when sanitary conditions decrease. In addition to these factors, chronic diseases, such as diabetes or hypertension, will be more prevalent in the most disadvantaged social classes, which will exacerbate the impact of infectious disease. To this situation, we can add the enormous number of unemployed resulting from this crisis and a generalized reduction in purchasing power.
A fresh look at the communication/information sector
This global health crisis has made quality communication about health a sensitive area deserving more attention from governments, as it can determine the course of an epidemic. An investment that many countries will certainly make in the future will be focused on creating reliable health information networks.
The search for immunization through food
In recent years, societies have organized themselves to protect against chronic diseases by promoting healthy eating, physical exercise, and/or combating stress. Beyond foods that protect against these pathologies, the area of nutrition and immunity will receive renewed attention . During this crisis, there has been an increase in demand for citrus fruits and certainly for other foods or supplements considered important in combating the disease . A brief search using the term "Vitamin" on Google Trends shows that interest in the subject was moderate until the beginning of the coronavirus crisis in late December. However, searches for the term "Vitamin" reached their peak (maximum platform rating) from March 15th onwards, and remained there until at least the beginning of April 2020. This may be a model of thinking that is increasingly present among consumers.
A new role for healthcare professionals linked to nutrition
Given that a balanced diet is fundamental to combating this dual category of diseases (chronic/acute), and considering the foreseeable disruption of the food system in schools, homes, and support for disadvantaged families, new roles and skills with increased responsibilities in the area of emergency management will have to be considered in the training of nutritionists.
We hope you enjoyed this exercise. We conclude by quoting Daniel Innerarity (2011) :
In the realm of living beings, humankind is the only one that knows there is a future. If humans worry and hope, it is because they know that the future exists, that it can be better or worse, and that this depends, to some extent, on themselves. But knowing this does not mean that they also know what they should do with this knowledge. And they often repress it, because thinking about the future distorts the comfort of the present, which is usually more powerful than the future because it is present and because it is certain (...) Getting along with the future is not an easy task. A large part of our unease and our lack of collective rationality stems from the fact that democratic societies do not maintain good relations with the future.
The authors of this text are:
Alexandra Monteiro, Ana Beatriz Alves, Ana Catarina Pinto, Ana Gabriela Cabilhas, Ana Teresa Rebelo, Andreia Ferreira, Bárbara Monteiro, Bruna Barbosa, Fernando Nogueira, Fernando Fonseca, Inês Mota, Jorge Boabaid, Laura Pinto, Maria Eduarda de Melo, Maria João Gregório, Nathália Godoy, Pedro Graça, Sofia Coimbra.
PS – We just talked about the future, but we can't forget the present. The editorial team and everyone at Pensar Nutrição send a heartfelt hug to the many hundreds of nutritionists who are going through difficult times these days. Especially to the younger ones. A hug to all those who are unemployed, working on a freelance basis, or in precarious employment situations, and who currently have so little hope for the future. No, we haven't forgotten you. Better days will come, and we will do everything we can to make that happen. We keep hope alive and wish everyone good health.
Written by
Pedro Graça, Director of the Faculty of Nutrition and Food Sciences at the University of Porto
